Denver Estate Real
Initial analysis of the current market
Denver Estate Real
Update 2 on Gold
Denver Estate Real
House prices in South Florida 3 rd
Denver Estate Real
4 National Real Estate
5 of the inverted yield curve Is Still
6 What this means to you
Initial analysis of the current market
As an analyst of the economy and the housing market, we must be patient to see what unfolds and to see if the predictions are good or bad. You never know if it's good orevil, they must have a sense of humility about it, so I'm not blind to the reality of the market.
In March 2006, my eBook How to change the place of the Prosper real estate market. Protect yourself from the bubble now! said he wanted to slow down in a short period of time in the housing market considerably and become a real drag on the economy. We see this slowdown in the economy right now and I'm not too far from slowwell. History has repeatedly shown that the slowdown in the housing market and construction almost always leads to an economic downturn in American history.
Let's look at what happens in the following areas to see what we can from them shine like gold, real estate in South Florida, the yield curve National real estate industry / economy and see what this means for you:
Gold 2
If you read thisNewsletter and / or eBook, you know, I am a big fan of investing in gold. Why? Because I think the dollar is in serious financial difficulties. But gold has risen against all currencies, not just the U.S. dollar.
Why gold has risen? Gold is a neutral form of money, can not be printed by a government and so there is a long term hedge against inflation. James Burton, CEO of Gold Council, said recently: "The gold is very important Foreign exchange reserves of central banks, as a reserve currency only, that no liability. So it is a defense against the unknown risks. It is a long term hedge against inflation and as a hedge of dollars when you demonstrated good properties of diversification of a portfolio of assets of central bank reserves a. "
I agree with Mr. Burton to 100%. I think we will have a golden bull again and I have to take advantage of this bubble potential to invest in gold (think real-time>estate prices around the year 2002 - wouldn't you like to have bought more real estate back then?)
I had previously recommended that you buy gold when it was between 0 and 0 an ounce. Currently, gold is trading at around 0 an ounce up more than 10% from the levels I recommended. However, gold has some serious technical resistance at the 0 level and if it fails to break out through that level it might go down in the short-term. If it does go down again to the 0 - 0 level, I like it at these levels as a buy. I believe that gold will go to 0 an ounce before the end of 2007.
3. Real Estate in South Florida
Real estate in South Florida has been hit hard by this slowdown as it was one of the largest advancers during the housing boom. The combination of rising homes for sale on the market, the amazing amount of construction occurring in the area and higher interest rates have been three of the major factors of the slowdown.
For every home that sold in the South Florida area in 2006, an average of 14 did not sell according to the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data. The number of homes available for sale on the market doubled to around 66,000, as sales slowed to their lowest level in 10 years.
Even though home prices were up for the year of 2006, the average asking price for homes in December was down about 13 percent compared to a year ago. From 2001 to 2005, the price of a single-family home in Miami-Dade increased 120 percent to 1,200. This is also similar to what happened in Broward County. The problem is that wages during that time only increased by 17.6% in Miami-Dade, and 15.9% in Broward, according to federal data. This is the other major factor that is contributing to the slowdown - real estate prices far outpaced incomes of potential buyers of these homes.
Another factor that helped drive the South Florida boom in prices was high growth in population in Florida. From 2002 to 2005, more than a million new residents moved to Florida and Florida also added more jobs than any other state. However, the three largest moving companies reported that 2006 was the first time in years that they had moved more people out of the state of Florida than into it. Also, school enrollment is declining which could be another sign that middle-class families are leaving.
By far though, the area of South Florida real estate that will be hit hardest is and will continue to be the condominium market. Due to their lower prices than homes, condos make financial sense in the South Florida area. However, the supply of available condos has tripled over the past year and it will get worse before it gets better. More than 11,500 new condos are expected this year and 15,000 next year with the majority of them being built in Miami.
As a result of the oversupply, asking prices for condos are down 12% in 2006 in Miami to 2,000. And incentives are substituting for price cuts. These incentives include paying all closing costs to free upgrades and more.
The last point to think about affecting South Florida real estate is the escalating costs of property insurance and property taxes. These increasing costs are putting more downward pressure on real estate prices.
My strong belief is that we are only starting to see the slowdown of the South Florida real estate market and that prices will continue to fall. Due to the fact that many real estate investors are pulling out, where are the next wave of buyers going to come from at these current prices? Unless a serious influx of new, high paying jobs enter the South Florida area, real estate prices, just like any asset that falls out of favor after a large runup only have one way to go... down.
4. Real Estate Nationwide
A report released last week from the National Association of Realtors showed that in the last three months of 2006 home sales fell in 40 states and median home prices dropped in nearly half of the metropolitan areas surveyed. The median price of a previously owned, single family home fell in 73 of the 149 metropolitan areas surveyed in the 4th quarter.
The National Association of Realtors report also said that the states with the biggest declines in the number of sales in October through December compared with the same period in 2005 were:
* Nevada: -36.1% in sales
* Florida: -30.8% in sales
* Arizona: -26.9% in sales
* California: -21.3% in sales
Nationally, sales declined by 10.1% in the 4th quarter compared with the same period a year ago. And the national median price fell to 9,300, down 2.7% from the 4th quarter of 2005.
Slower sales and cancellations of existing orders have caused the number of unsold homes to really increase. The supply of homes at 2006 sales rate averaged 6.4 months worth which was up from 4.4 months worth in 2005 and only 4 months worth in 2004.
Toll Brothers, Inc., the largest US luxury home builder, reported a 33% drop in orders during the quarter ending January 31.
Perhaps most importantly, falling home values will further decrease their use of mortgage equity withdrawal loans. In 2006, mortgage equity withdrawal accounted for 2% of GDP growth. Construction added 1% to last years GDP growth, so the importance of these factors are to the health of the US economy are enormous.
The other concern is sub-prime mortgages. Today, sub-prime mortgages amount to 25% of all mortgages, around 5 billion. Add to this the fact that approximately trillion in adjustable-rate mortgages are eligible to be reset in the next two years and we will continue to see rising foreclosures. For example, foreclosures are up five times in Denver. These foreclosed homes come back onto the market and depress real estate values.
The Center for Responsible Lending estimates that as many as 20% of the subprime mortgages made in the last 2 years could go into foreclosure. This amounts to about 5% of the total homes sold coming back on the market at "fire-sales". Even if only 1/2 of that actually comes back on the market, it would cause overall valuations to go down and the ability to get home mortgage equity loans to decrease further.
Prepare yourself now because you can still get great advice from the eBook. Buy it with this secure link: https://shop.outstandingebooks.com/displayProductDocument.hg?productId=1
5. Yield Curve is still inverted!
The yield curve is still inverted. In a normal market, you get more interest (yield) for longer term investments. But very rarely the short-term rates become higher than long term rates such as now.
History has shown that an inverted yield curve is the best indicator of a future recession. The yield curve has been inverted since last fall, and if history is any judge we should be in a recession by the 3rd quarter of 2007. Throughout history, we have never had an inverted yield curve without a recession within the next 4 quarters.
The inverted yield curve does not cause the recession, it is simply a signal that something is out of whack in the economy.
6. What this means to you
One of two things could happen going forward in the real estate market: real estate prices will go up or they will go down. History has shown us that any asset that runs up, must come down, whether we are talking about the Dutch Tulip Market, the stock market bubble, the gold bubble of the early 1980s, or Japan's run-up in housing in the 1980's and subsequent 15 year decrease in values.
The big picture of the real estate market is that it goes up and down in cycles. It has been in an up cycle for 10 years and it is most likely time for it to face it's down cycle.
This is the natural cycle of assets:
* Markets go up
* Greed and insanity take over
* An excess forms (i.e. overbuilding)
* A downturn corrects the excesses in the market
This natural cycle is the same principle in "the big picture" as crash dieting is in "the little picture". We starve ourselves to lose 15 pounds, which shuts down our body for the short term, only for it to crank up higher when we go back to "normal" eating patterns.
And speaking of diets, I heard from an old high school buddy who has lost weight on a "cookie" diet where he eats one high protein dinner a day and only 6 low fat cookies throughout the day whenever he is hungry. While he has lost weight on this 800 calorie a day diet, I can't see how it is healthy to starve yourself like that. He told me that whenever he breaks his diet and eats any sodium, he immediately gains one and a half pounds. Talk about your body out of whack! I still recommend exercise (www.mattfurey.com) combined with a low white-carb diet (no white bread, white pastas, and limited sugars). It works for me.
Set your portfolio up correctly now by reading the eBook at http://www.myrealestatebubble.com.
***Disclaimer: This information and the corresponding websites do not constitute professional services, including, but not limited to investment advice. Please consult a finance and/or investment professional for services and advice.
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